Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 145.648324 169.298418 196.577344 230.601293 272.224876 321.905459 386.319254
2025-11-23 112.343401 140.463261 176.039715 225.126200 292.336810 383.024303 517.996713
2025-11-30 99.557006 131.593289 175.138589 240.294425 338.291529 485.391626 733.724295
2025-12-07 87.226101 120.173065 167.450240 242.786713 364.940012 565.235823 942.358377
2025-12-14 78.795863 112.441989 163.019349 248.188761 395.942546 658.893104 1208.931957
2025-12-21 70.953824 104.207867 156.154029 247.793216 416.304190 738.752564 1481.743902
2025-12-28 67.771125 102.579243 159.206405 264.229793 470.121150 897.736475 2001.527056
2026-01-04 64.321639 99.962239 160.061869 276.656300 519.083712 1063.118301 2633.517992
2026-01-11 60.895914 96.889469 159.571148 286.270285 564.532039 1236.941033 3406.244065
2026-01-18 57.196174 92.869224 156.757813 290.658782 599.563968 1398.671513 4266.585803
2026-01-25 53.410286 88.257268 152.205973 290.576876 624.165543 1542.719077 5190.809409
2026-02-01 49.373665 82.770454 145.302736 284.256701 631.966707 1642.426481 6035.797293
2026-02-08 45.643316 77.624592 138.726423 278.209958 640.848966 1755.830446 7102.605198
2026-02-15 42.269364 72.839416 132.339442 271.610351 646.967412 1865.236014 8304.653541
2026-02-22 41.644519 73.251222 136.586457 290.844190 731.451208 2295.432351 12082.440501
2026-03-01 39.648404 70.764831 134.429149 294.013676 769.761045 2576.929905 15518.865376
2026-03-08 38.122258 69.068475 133.760834 300.867077 822.158908 2953.732084 20764.591691
2026-03-15 36.182681 66.348406 130.513279 300.365553 850.482710 3244.747333 26198.535794
2026-03-22 35.857001 66.943015 134.810027 321.262337 961.130520 4035.794088 41227.906801
2026-03-29 35.167182 66.694359 137.119602 337.111981 1060.497684 4875.084927 63337.627035
2026-04-05 34.281841 65.937174 138.124453 349.403556 1151.835226 5777.346382 96443.782534
2026-04-12 33.081528 64.379026 136.994874 355.022585 1218.533208 6603.900392 140238.964607
2026-04-19 31.674957 62.243976 134.197834 354.917666 1260.839005 7312.746225 194824.073686